JAMMU, September 11, 2025
As Jammu and Kashmir continues to recover from the devastating floods and landslides of late August and early September, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a fresh weather alert warning of heavy rainfall across the region on September 13, with a particular focus on Kathua district in the Jammu division. While the weather is expected to remain largely clear and dry until September 12, the forecast for the following days signals a potential return to turbulent conditions, including thunderstorms, moderate showers, and heightened risks of landslides in vulnerable hilly terrains. This advisory comes at a critical time, as the region grapples with ongoing infrastructure repairs and the recent reopening of key highways like NH-44, emphasizing the need for heightened preparedness to avoid further disruptions.
According to the IMD’s Srinagar Meteorological Centre, the immediate 24 hours through September 12 will see mostly dry conditions across Jammu and Kashmir, though isolated light rains cannot be ruled out in some areas. However, starting September 13, the outlook shifts dramatically: light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is anticipated at most places, with heavy downpours specifically forecasted for Kathua district. Upper reaches and hilly areas may experience scattered showers, maintaining the persistent threat of landslides and falling stones in sensitive zones like Doda, Ramban, and Reasi. This pattern is expected to continue intermittently through mid-September, with partial cloud cover and occasional thundershowers on September 14-15, followed by light to moderate rains with lightning on September 16-17.
The alert underscores the fragility of the region’s recovery efforts following the record-breaking monsoon that caused widespread devastation earlier this month. Nearly 12,000 kilometers of roads were damaged, rivers like the Chenab and Tawi overflowed, and at least 40 lives were lost in flash floods and landslides. The Jammu-Srinagar National Highway (NH-44), which was blocked for nine days until its partial reopening on September 10, remains vulnerable to further blockages from heavy rains. Similarly, routes like the Batote-Doda-Kishtwar road are still closed due to ongoing landslide risks. The IMD’s warnings align with broader patterns observed in recent forecasts, where heavy to very heavy rainfall has been linked to cloudbursts and flash floods, particularly in districts like Kathua, Rajouri, and Poonch.
Forecast Breakdown: A Week of Unpredictable Skies Ahead
The IMD’s detailed prognosis provides a clear picture of the evolving weather scenario, helping residents and authorities plan accordingly. Here’s a day-by-day outlook based on the latest advisory:
- September 11-12: Predominantly dry and clear skies across Jammu division, with minimal chances of light rain in isolated pockets. Upper hilly areas may see occasional drizzles, but overall conditions remain stable – a brief respite after the recent turmoil.
- September 13: Widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms expected. Heavy rains are specifically highlighted for Kathua, raising concerns for low-lying areas prone to waterlogging. Hilly terrains face elevated landslide risks, especially along highways and in districts like Udhampur and Ramban.
- September 14-15: Partly cloudy with possibilities of rain or thundershowers at scattered locations. No major alerts, but vigilance is advised for sensitive zones.
- September 16-17: Return to light to moderate showers with thunder and lightning at multiple places, potentially disrupting travel and agriculture.
These forecasts are informed by IMD’s monitoring of monsoon withdrawal patterns, which have been erratic this year, leading to prolonged wet spells in northern India. Temperatures during this period are expected to hover between 28-32°C daytime highs and 14-18°C nighttime lows in Jammu, with higher elevations cooler. Humidity levels could rise with the rains, exacerbating discomfort and health risks like vector-borne diseases in flood-affected areas.
Lingering Dangers: Landslides and Flood Risks in a Fragile Landscape
The emphasis on landslide threats is particularly poignant given the recent catastrophes. Hilly and sensitive areas, including those near NH-44 and other inter-district roads, remain on high alert due to loosened soil from prior heavy rains. The August floods, which stranded over 4,000 vehicles and caused ₹200-700 crore losses to the fruit industry, demonstrated how quickly weather can turn deadly – with cloudbursts in Kishtwar claiming 67 lives and injuring over 300. Authorities have urged residents to avoid riverbanks, nallahs, and steep slopes, while the Jammu and Kashmir administration continues to deploy teams for monitoring and evacuation.
In Kathua, the heavy rain warning could strain ongoing relief efforts, as the district was among the hardest hit, with damaged bridges and inundated farmlands. The UT government’s flood mitigation measures, reviewed by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, include high alert status for rivers like the Ravi and Ujh, which often swell during such events. Schools in Jammu division have been closed intermittently due to similar alerts, and the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage remains suspended for the 16th day, prioritizing pilgrim safety. Telecom services, already impacted by earlier damages, may face further outages, with the Department of Telecommunications activating Intra-Circle Roaming (ICR) in affected areas until at least September 2, extended as needed.
Broader implications extend to agriculture and economy: The fruit growers, still reeling from rotten produce delays, fear another blockade could devastate the apple harvest season. Appeals for rail freight operationalization continue, as highways like Mughal Road and Sinthan Pass, recently reopened, could close again. The IMD’s red alerts in early September for districts like Poonch and Reasi highlight the systemic vulnerability, with inter-ministerial teams assessing damages to push for enhanced infrastructure resilience under initiatives like the Z-Morh tunnel project.
Residents are advised to stay indoors during thunderstorms, monitor local advisories via IMD’s app or website, and prepare emergency kits. The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has ramped up patrols on NH-44, while disaster management cells in districts like Doda and Kathua are on standby.